Update on investment situation due to Iran’s attack (2 Oct 2024)
- Iran fired more than 200 missiles at Israel.
- Israel stated that most of the missiles were intercepted.
- The attack was in retaliation for Israel's assassination of a group leader.
- Crude oil prices have risen, reflecting the unstable situation.
- Economic stimulus measures from China, the U.S., and Europe
- Investment outlook and recommendations
• On 1 October, Iran launched over 200 missiles at Israel. Then, Prime Minister of Israel announced to strike back.
• Israel mentioned that most missiles were intercepted. However, there was 1 deceased from the attack.
• Iran’s attack was due to the assassination of leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas. Moreover, Israel deployed air and ground forces invading Lebanon.
• During 1 – 2 October, Brent crude oil price rose around +6% reflecting geopolitical uncertainty. However, the latest price is around $74-$75 per barrel which is lower than the price in mid-year that reached $90 per barrel.
• This Iran’s attack had no advance warning, which was different from the attack in April. The stock market is not surprised about the situation much. The market quite focused on interest rate cut of US Fed and China’s economic stimulus measure. On 2 October, Hang Seng market of Hong Kong increased over +6.2% (China’s stock market was closed due to long holidays), while US Futures market slightly dropped -0.07%. Most European Futures markets improved.
Investment outlook and recommendations
o We consider that the market will monitor the situation closely. If Iran closes Hormuz Strait, global energy price will be significantly impacted because it is a shipping route of 30% of the world’s oil trade and 20% of the world’s natural gas trade. Nevertheless, Iran never closes the Strait during previous unrest situations which were more severe than the current situation.
o We need to monitor the situation closely and recommend investors to diversify investments based on the Company’s recommended portfolios which will reduce investment volatility.
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