Trade war updates and performance results of recommended portfolios.
2 April 2025 — Liberation Day: President Trump announced retaliatory tariff measures against multiple countries worldwide — including a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, 20% on the European Union, and even a 36% tariff on Thai products. These measures are part of the U.S. strategy to pressure countries into trade negotiations, especially on issues where the U.S. believes it is being treated unfairly, or concerns related to national security. The announcement caused significant turmoil in global markets.
- Since its peak in 2025, the S&P 500 index dropped by as much as -19% as of 8 April.
- Following the announcement, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields surged, while the U.S. dollar weakened significantly against major global currencies (as reflected in the DXY Index).
- Analysts revised down their 2025 economic growth forecasts — for instance, the U.S. forecast was reduced from 2% to 1.7%. The Bank of Thailand also indicated a possible drop of Thailand’s GDP from the previous estimate of 2.5% given in February. The probability of a recession within the next year also increased across most regions.
9 April 2025 – Retaliatory Tariff Hike Postponed by 90 Days: The various impacts that followed the U.S. announcement of retaliatory tariffs—particularly the sharp decline in the U.S. stock market, alongside a surge in bond yields and a weakening U.S. dollar—reflected global investor concerns. This triggered a sell-off of U.S. dollar-denominated assets, prompting the U.S. to delay the tariff hikes by another 90 days (with the exception of China). However, a 10% import tariff on all countries remains in effect. (As of 18 April, the back-and-forth trade measures in the first half of April led to the U.S. imposing tariffs on Chinese imports as high as 145%, while China raised tariffs on U.S. goods by 125%.)
Investment Outlook and Recommendations
We believe the U.S.’s decision to step back in the initial phase reflects its concern over the potential impact on its own financial and economic systems. However, negotiations are still ongoing, which means market volatility is expected to persist for some time. We believe that unit-linked investors—particularly those who invest through the five recommended portfolios designed for long-term investment—can continue investing according to their appropriate risk level. These portfolios are well-diversified across various asset classes, which helps significantly reduce the risk of major losses while still allowing investors to capture potential market upside. This is reflected in the strong performance of all five recommended portfolios (represented in pink), which have continued to deliver solid returns from the beginning of the year up to 16 April especially when compared to investing in a single asset class alone.
Source: Bloomberg, FMLP (Returns are in Thai Baht)
Warning : Investors should understand the characteristics of the product, return conditions, and risks before making an investment decision. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investors should study the information about the mutual fund, especially the investment policy, risks, and performance disclosed in various sources or consult an investment advisor before deciding to invest. Additionally, investors should review the tax benefits specified in the mutual fund investment guide. This document is created for general dissemination and is based on sources considered reliable as of the date the information is presented, but the accuracy of the information cannot be fully guaranteed. Such information may change without prior notice. The investment proportions and performance data presented are for the initial portfolio, and the actual investment proportions and performance of individual investors may vary depending on the investment period and various costs as specified in the policy. For more details, please call 1766.