US Election Update: Donald Trump Returns to the White House

On 7 November 2024 at 9:00 a.m., the Republican Party continued to lead over the Democrats in the U.S. House elections. With Republicans already holding the presidency and a Senate majority, they’re likely to secure a majority in Congress as well. The question is, how will this affect investments?

• A major policy of Trump’s administration includes reducing the corporate tax rate, potentially from 21% to 15%. This change would positively impact the profitability of listed companies immediately. However, lower government revenue could increase the fiscal deficit, which might put upward pressure on interest rates.
  
• Import tariffs and the deportation of undocumented workers could drive inflation up, further impacting interest rates.

However, the implementation may be different from what was promised in the campaign. We believe that the corporate tax reduction is highly probable. Import tariffs, on the other hand, may vary based on specific international relations. During Trump’s first term (excluding 2020, due to COVID-19), inflation held between 2.0% and 3.0%, aligning closely with the Federal Reserve’s target. The outlook for major assets over the next 3-6 months is as follows:

*Global Stocks = MSCI ACWI Index, Thai Stocks = SET Index, Global Bonds = Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD, Thai Bonds           = ThaiBMA Gov Bond Grp1 TR Index, REITs = SET Property Fund & REITs Index, Gold = SPDR Gold Shares ETF
**REITs: Year-to-date return as of November 6, including dividends.

Given the various factors of volatility, including the policies of the new U.S. president and the increasing geopolitical tensions, we continue to recommend that clients invest according to the portfolio suggested by the Company in order to reduce short-term volatility and generate good returns in the long term.

Warning : Investors should understand the characteristics of the product, return conditions, and risks before making an investment decision. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investors should study the information about the mutual fund, especially the investment policy, risks, and performance disclosed in various sources or consult an investment advisor before deciding to invest. Additionally, investors should review the tax benefits specified in the mutual fund investment guide. This document is created for general dissemination and is based on sources considered reliable as of the date the information is presented, but the accuracy of the information cannot be fully guaranteed. Such information may change without prior notice. The investment proportions and performance data presented are for the initial portfolio, and the actual investment proportions and performance of individual investors may vary depending on the investment period and various costs as specified in the policy. For more details, please call 1766.